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[Suresh]

Wall Street Journal: Trading Down: Can It Still Bankroll Your Retirement?
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A study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, scheduled to be released on Monday, shows that while mobility has slowed across all age groups during the real estate bust, "mobility rates among seniors have posted the sharpest drop." Trade-downs in March comprised about 8% of total home sales, down from 12% in October 2008, the first year for which there are historical comparisons, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Why are pre-retirees staying put? The housing crash has pounded the higher end of the market, to which many 50- and 60-somethings have graduated. That has narrowed the price gaps between the upper and middle markets, meaning smaller homes aren't always much cheaper.
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The logic of downsizing is simple. Middle-class Americans devote 20% to 50% of their budgets to housing costs.... So people who reduce that figure significantly can improve their spending power accordingly.
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Diane Saatchi, senior vice president at Saunders & Associates, a real-estate firm in Bridgehampton, N.Y., says downsizing nowadays "costs more than people have in mind." In her area, she says, total transaction costs easily exceed 10% to sell and buy simultaneously.
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Other hurdles beyond the slumping real-estate market are getting in empty-nesters' way, too. Many people of retirement age are still working, for example, and need to stay near their jobs, meaning out-of-state moves are out of the question. Some are in two-income households, complicating the decision to relocate even more.

What's more, adult children are becoming more of an issue than they used to be. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, "more and more kids are moving in with parents and grandparents," says Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive of Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC.
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Suresh

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[Suresh]

New York Times: Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say
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But many real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg.

The wealth generated by housing in those decades, particularly on the coasts, did more than assure the owners a comfortable retirement. It powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming.

More than likely, that era is gone for good.

“There is no iron law that real estate must appreciate,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow. “All those theories advanced during the boom about why housing is special — that more people are choosing to spend more on housing, that more people are moving to the coasts, that we were running out of usable land — didn’t hold up.”

Instead, Mr. Humphries and other economists say, housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.
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Housing experts are bracing themselves for Tuesday, when the sales figures for July will be released. The data is expected to show a drop of as much as 20 percent from last year.

The supply of homes sitting on the market might rise to as much as 12 months, about twice the level of a healthy market. That would push down prices as all those sellers compete to secure a buyer, adding to a slide that has already chopped off as much as 30 percent in home values.
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_________________
Suresh

Please feel free to agree with or critique the article excerpts and our comments. Also, please post excerpts from current articles that you've read and which may help all of us get a more complete macroeconomic big picture.